Weekly Market Commentary 11/4/25

THE MARKETS

Like walking on cobblestones…

If you’ve ever walked down a road paved with cobblestones, you know the uneven surface can be challenging. Today, financial markets are paved with a variety of challenges and concerns. A recent survey from Charles Schwab found that its clients remain bullish; however, they have concerns about how the political landscape, market valuations, and geopolitical and macroeconomic issues will affect markets over the next three months. They also are considering the possibility of stagflation. (Stagflation is a rare confluence of slow economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment.)

Last week, markets were volatile. Rising and falling in response to a variety of different events, including:

U.S.- China trade negotiations. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping met last week and “Both sides agreed to delay restrictions that formed the center of an escalating tit-for-tat in recent weeks. That de-escalation…took a worst-case scenario off the table for markets, though much of what was agreed upon still has to be worked out in detail,” reported Reshma Kapadia of Barron’s.

A cautionary statement from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors were not surprised when the Fed lowered the federal funds rate last week. However, the market wobbled when Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was not a certainty, reported Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. In the post-meeting statement, Chair Powell said:

“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. GDP rose at a 1.6 percent pace in the first half of the year, down from 2.4 percent last year…In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside – a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.”

Third quarter company performance. It’s earnings season, the time when companies tell investors how profitable they were in the previous quarter. In general, companies performed well. “In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1 [percent]),” reported John Butters of FactSet.

The caveat is that many stock prices are at levels that require excellent performance. As a result, companies with earnings that were not perfect saw their share prices drop “What is more, companies aren’t getting rewarded as much for good news…FactSet said that the average price increase following a positive earnings surprise so far this quarter is just 0.3 [percent], compared with the five-year average of 0.9 [percent],” reported Paul La Monica of Barron’s.

Just as the right footwear can make walking on cobblestones easier, having a well-allocated and diversified portfolio can make navigating uncertain markets less stressful. Diversification won’t prevent losses, but it can help investors manage portfolio risk.

Amid significant volatility, major U.S. stock indexes moved higher over the week. Broadly speaking, U.S. Treasuries gained value as yields on many maturities ended the week lower than they started it.

Data as of 10/31/25	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	0.7%	16.3%	19.9%	20.9%	15.6%	12.5%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.	0.0%	25.0%	21.3%	17.0%	8.0%	5.1%
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	4.1%	N/A	4.3%	4.1%	0.9%	2.2%
Gold (per ounce)	-2.3%	53.7%	46.7%	34.8%	16.2%	13.5%
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-0.1%	8.7%	9.4%	-1.8%	8.3%	2.2%

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

WHAT IS AI GOOD FOR?

Americans have mixed feelings about artificial intelligence (AI). In September, Brian Kennedy, Eileen Yam, Emma Kikuchi, Isabelle Pula, and Javier Fuentes of Pew Research reported on a September 2025 survey that asked about the risks and benefits of AI for society. The survey found:

50 percent of respondents were more concerned than excited about AI being used more frequently in daily life,
38 percent were both concerned and excited,
10 percent were more excited than concerned, and
2 percent did not respond to the question.

Regardless, many Americans are using AI to make informed decisions when buying goods and services. For example, Americans have been turning to AI for help when:

Negotiating a better price for a car. Younger generations are using AI to identify the best times to buy cars (with a focus on price fluctuations, deals, or incentives), reported Eileen Falkenberg-Hull of Newsweek. They’re also using AI to review contracts and negotiate better deals, according to The Economist.

Identifying the best value on a wine menu. Unless you are very knowledgeable about a wide range of wines, it can be challenging to know which bottle on a restaurant menu is well-priced. Now, you can upload a photo of the menu’s wine list and ask AI.

Understanding plumbing and household repair issues. AI may be able to diagnose a problem and suggest a low-cost solution or negotiate a better price with the plumber. A recent survey found that “homeowners who followed AI’s guidance…reported an average 47 [percent] reduction in repair or maintenance costs and 29 [percent] felt less stressed about managing home repairs,” reported Anna Baluch on Realtor.com. She emphasized that it is important to double-check the advice offered by AI before taking action.

“As AI goes mainstream, it will remove one of the most enduring distortions in modern capitalism: the information advantages that sellers, service providers and intermediaries enjoy over consumers. When everyone has a genius in their pocket, they will be less vulnerable to mis-selling—benefiting them and improving overall economic efficiency. The ‘rip-off economy’, in which firms profit from opacity, confusion or inertia, is meeting its match,” reported The Economist.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“…an adversarial mindset not only prevents us from understanding and responding to the other party, but also makes us feel like we’ve lost when we don’t get our way.”

– Daniel Goleman, Psychologist and author

Securities and investment advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC Additional advisory services offered through Novem Group and Osaic Advisory services. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Please see website NovemGroup.com for specific financial professional’s affiliation. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of Novem Group or Osaic Wealth and have not been reviewed for completeness or accuracy. Any comments or postings are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk, may result in a loss of principal, and are not suitable for all types of investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. (10/24)

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources: