Patrick O’Shaughnessy interview of Steve Mandel

This is just one of Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s Invest like the Best podcasts – I highly recommend checking out some others.

Steve Mandel’s track record at Lone Pine is nothing short of exceptional. During the podcast, Steve and Patrick cover a few topics


  • Sam Walton’s ability to connect with people and retailing as a platform for successful businesses
  • Investing behind multi-year trends
  • Characteristics of a successful analyst
  • Characteristics of a successful management
  • Each business has a few key drivers- identifying and understanding these key drivers is essential for analysis.

Howard Marks’ most recent memo

Thinking-About-Macro.pdf (


  • To be useful, information must be important AND knowable.
      • Macroeconomic information is certainly important but it is NOT knowable.
  • Inflation
    • Incredibly important information to know but there are logical arguments on both sides of the “transitory inflation’ versus “1970’s style inflation” argument
  • Stock Market Forecasters
    • Since 2000, the median stock market forecast has never called for a down year
    • “year after year, these forecasts are about as accurate as those of a weatherman who always calls for balmy sunshine in a city where it rains or snows 30% of the time.”
  • In regards to a “Goldilocks” scenario where low interest rates keep the market aloft forever….
    • I’m not smart enough to prove it, but to me these assumptions seem too good to be true. They have the appearance of a perpetual motion machine or a credit card with no credit limit and no requirement to pay off the balance. I can’t tell you exactly what the catch is, but I think there has to be one. Or, perhaps better put, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on there not being a catch.”


  • Demographics can’t be avoided, glossed over, or manipulated. The below chart is already happening.
  • As these working-age populations inflect, it will have massive implications for asset prices, geopolitics, and perhaps capitalism itself.
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