Hello and Happy Thanksgiving!
Eagles finally had their first loss last Monday in a tough divisional game. Fortunately they were able to right the ship this weekend with a close win against the Colts. After a whirlwind week the Bills made it to Detroit and had a good showing against the Browns. Lucky for them they get to play the short week against the Lions without much travel.
What Actually Is Thundersnow?
One of the biggest snowstorms in recent memory came to Buffalo this weekend, with upwards of six feet of snow.
This caused the Bills-Browns game to be moved to Detroit’s Ford Field. That marks the first time since 2014 an NFL game has been moved due to snow… also a Bills home game… moved to Detroit.
This is also one of the few times we will see “Thundersnow” which is a rare occurrence where we see a winter snowstorm with thunder. Essentially, it is a thunderstorm that you would normally see in the summer with snow instead of rain.
These storms typically happen during lake effect snow storms when cold air passes over warm water. With Lake Erie being very warm for this time of year, what we get is the rare event of Thundersnow.
The over six feet of snow is taller than nine players on the bills and both projected starting running backs for the game!
Balances Are On The Rise - So Who Is Taking
Household debt balances have continued to climb with 3Q22 adding $351B
- This was driven by a rise of $282B in mortgage balances
- Mortgages now comprise 71% of outstanding household debt up from 69% in 4Q19
- Analyzing these balances by borrower demographics shows an increase of balances across all age groups.
- However, this increase was largely driven by significant increase in balances for the 30-59 age group
- With prices up more than 8% on the year it is not overly surprising balances are increasing.
Credit cards also contributed to the rising household debt with balances up $38B from the previous quarter
Although we have seen significant increase in balances recently as you can see from the chart they are approaching pre pandemic levels and bouncing off a sharp decline through the pandemic
Important to note as well. Even with an increase in balances delinquency rates are still lower than their pre pandemic levels and significantly lower than they were in the Great Financial Crisis
Monitoring these delinquency rates going forward will be an important sign to monitor if US consumers are struggling or if they are able to continue managing their finances well.
The Markets Can't Save You If You Don't Save
Something that continually gets cited this year has been what a bad year it is shaping up to be for 60/40 portfolios
- If we finished last week it would be the 3rd worst year in almost 100 years for a 60/40 portfolio!
- Stocks and bonds are both down over 15% YTD!
It is important to zoom out and have a wider perspective
- Over the past 10 years a 60/40 portfolio has given investors 8% per year!
- The good has far outweighed the bad
“Losing a large chunk of your life savings is never a good time but investors need to realize their portfolio values wouldn’t be so high in the first place if it wasn’t for the bull market that led up to these difficult times.”
According to Goldman Sachs 51% of retirees are living on less than half of their preretirement annual income.
- Having the ability to limit withdrawals during times of volatility can be critical for your assets to last.
More importantly than all, the financial markets can only take you so far
- Focus on what you can control – your savings and spending
It May Be Cheaper To Eat Out ON Thanksgiving As Grocery Prices Soar
Prices have seen double digit percent increases for turkey, potatoes, stuffing, canned pumpkin, and other thanksgiving staples.
- Many people have cut down on spending by limiting the number of sides to make for large group thanksgiving dinners.
Wholesale turkey prices are at record highs after a difficult year for U.S. flocks. A deadly strain of avian flu has wiped out 49 million turkeys.
- When factoring in inflation, the low supply for turkeys has driven prices up to record levels.
However, stores have made strides in years past to ensure they have turkeys in supply due to the guaranteed demand around the holidays.
Perhaps eating out for Thanksgiving dinner is the way to go this year. Costs of going to a restaurant have increased roughly half as much as grocery store prices have. A rare time where the “value play” might be eating out instead of at home.
Reports show that for most households, Thanksgiving dinner is nonnegotiable, and that the menu must stay the same no matter what. “Thanksgiving’s main dish is not the place for compromise,” the report said.