The Markets
Showing remarkable resilience.
Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be near an end. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index entered a bull market and the Nasdaq Composite Index delivered its best first-half performance in 40 years, gaining more than 30 percent over the period, reported Barron’s.
So far this year, many investors have remained optimistic amid significant uncertainty that included:
- A banking crisis and tighter credit. In March, three U.S. regional banks failed, creating concern about the health of mid-sized banks. While the situation has stabilized, banks have become more cautious about lending, making it more challenging for businesses and individuals to find funding, reported Nicole Goodkind of CNNBusiness.
- Debt-ceiling turmoil. Before Congress passed legislation raising the debt ceiling, some pundits were predicting a calamitous outcome for financial markets, featuring falling stock prices and rapidly rising bond yields. Fortunately, Congress reached an agreement, and we didn’t need to find out.
- A rate-cycle-expectations gap. During the first six months of this year, the bond market expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pivot and begin lowering rates during the second half of the year, reported John Authers of Bloomberg. However, in late June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed was likely to raise rates two or more times during 2023.
- Stubbornly high inflation. Prices are rising more slowly; however, inflation is still well above the Fed’s two percent target. Last week, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed headline inflation was 3.8 percent year-over-year, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 4.6 percent.
- Mixed economic messages. The post-pandemic economy has been full of surprises. The economy has generally been stronger than many anticipated, although some parts of the economy suffered. “The U.S. is experiencing a ‘rolling recession’ that may be followed by a ‘rolling expansion’ as the parts of the economy that weakened first start to recover,” according to a source cited by Lauren Foster of Barron’s. One example is the single-family housing market, which fell into recession as borrowing costs rose and has begun to improve.
- A new bull market. In June, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a bull-market marker. The Index was 20 percent higher than its previous low, which occurred in October 2022. Initially, gains were driven by a relatively small number of stocks; however, a broader swath of stocks gained as the month progressed, reported Jack Pitcher of The Wall Street Journal.
It’s likely that uncertainty and volatility will continue. Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished higher, reported Barron’s Data.11 Yields on most U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher.
| Data as of 6/30/23 | 1-Week | Y-T-D | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 2.4% | 15.9% | 17.6% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. | 1.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 3.8% | N/A | 3.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Gold (per ounce) | -1.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.9% | -10.0% | -13.3% | 16.0% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
AND THE HAPPIEST COUNTRIES ARE…
The World Happiness Report is published by the United Nations General Assembly. The creators of the report “believe that our success as countries should be judged by the happiness of our people.” The authors measure happiness by interviewing a nationally representative sample of people in the countries that participate.
The ranking considers happiness and misery. “A population will only experience high levels of overall life satisfaction if its people are also pro-social, healthy, and prosperous. In other words, its people must have high levels of what Aristotle called ‘eudaimonia’…When we assess a society, a situation, or a policy, we should not look only at the average happiness it brings (including for future generations). We should look especially at the scale of misery (i.e., low life satisfaction) that results.”
This year, the Index was presented in a slightly different way. It consolidated results from 2020 through 2022. The countries with the highest Happiness Index scores over that period were:
- Finland
- Denmark
- Iceland
- Israel
- Netherlands
The countries with the lowest scores were:
- 137. Afghanistan
- 136. Lebanon
- 135. Sierra Leone
- 134. Zimbabwe
- 133. Democratic Republic of Congo
The United States was the fifteenth happiest country in the world.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Securities offered through American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. (APFS), Member FINRA, SIPC. Advisory services offered through American Portfolios Advisors, Inc. (APA) and/or Novem Group, SEC-Registered Investment Advisers. Novem Group is independent of APFS and APA. Please refer to your representative’s FINRA BrokerCheck for firm affiliations. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of Novem Group, APFS, or APA and have not been reviewed for completeness or accuracy. Any comments or postings are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk, may result in a loss of principal, and are not suitable for all types of investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
https://apnews.com/article/bull-stock-market-wall-street-cde5d042da6aa887e7d5ba64b62815ff
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-063023 or go to
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20News_2.pdf
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-debt-ceiling-d1fb238a Or go to:
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_Barrons_Why%20Even%20a%20Debt%20Ceiling%20Deal%20Could%20Be%20Bad_4.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-aims-quick-passage-debt-ceiling-bill-avoid-default-2023-06-01/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-08/fed-pivot-hedging-remains-the-best-rates-strategy#xj4y7vzkg Or go to:
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_Bloomberg_Been%20Hedging%20Around%20the%20Pivot_6.pdf
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230629a.htm
https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2023
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-expansion-economy-yardeni-3683673 Or go to:
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_Barrons_What%20Recession_9.pdf
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-06-29-2023/card/a-majority-of-s-p-500-stocks-are-up-this-year-as-market-breadth-improves-LqLny6hJ9Xreeg0cM8jf Or go to:
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_WSJ_A%20Majority%20of%20S&P%20500%20Stocks%20are%20Up_10.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV Or go to:
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/07-03-23_Barrons_Data_11.pdf
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202306
https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2023/executive-summary/
https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2023/world-happiness-trust-and-social-connections-in-times-of-crisis/
https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript